Smackdown crashing

I wasn’t invited to the TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown (see also), but I figure I’m just as capable of making wild, semi-empirically based predictions as anyone else, so I have done so. I’ll try to keep this up, round-by-round, and we’ll see how I do against more well-known Stat Geeks. Perhaps if I do well, someday I will be a TrueHoop-acknowledged geek…

Using just True Winning Percentages and bernoulli probabilities, I’ve calculated the probabilities of each possible series outcome, and then normalized to sum to one. (See my spreadsheet) For the first round, I have:

BOS in 4
CLE in 7
ORL in 6
DET in 5
LAL in 6
HOU in 7
SAN in 7
NOR in 6

Probabilities, as sparklines:

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3 responses to “Smackdown crashing

  1. There could be upsets but not likely… how in the world would Houston beat Utah? Did you see their respective seasons? Utah is bigger, better than a year ago, not missing their center and play a Sloan forced team ball game. Houston is one or two at best dimension team. Don’t think they can pull the rabbit out of their hat 4 out of the next 6 games. When you make predictions like you have itmakes one wonder if you are in touch with reality.

  2. wow, houston in 7?????????? man you need to rework whatever formula you’re using, or put down the crack-pipe lol. houston in 7….what a joke!! i wont be referring anyone to this page after seeing that crap. lol, wow!! more like jazz in 4 you retard. haha, i cant stop, that is just freakin hilarious that you have houston winning that series. man oh man you are dumb!

  3. Hey guys…easy on our future stat geek! It’s just a formula based on existing data to predict PROBABILITY…not ACTUAL outcome. Who would have guessed the Spurs would be up 3-0 on the Suns after watching Game 1?

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