On Second Thought…

I decided shortly after that last post that including turnovers and shot attempts to positively reflect on a player’s value is a stupid idea. So, I’ve changed the calculation somewhat. Instead of using “touches”, I am now using “valuable contributions”:
val=pts+tr+as+st+bk
tval=tpts+ttr+tas+tst+tbk
winshr=val/tval*tw
This win share measure just sits better with me. Given two players on the same team equal in every way except turnovers, I do not want to credit the player with the greater number of turnovers with a greater contribution to team wins.

This new formulation does not change the rankings very much:


Yes, that does mean that James and Bryant were responsible for almost a quarter of their teams’ wins. Given that, and given that the Cavaliers had a better record than the Lakers, I would suggest that LeBron had a more productive season. This does not adjust for quality of competition, but eight more team wins is substantial.

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