Credit where credit is due

Last night’s game was awesome–I admit a pro-Celtics bias on account of a pro-Kevin Garnett bias, but also and anti-Kobe Bryant bias. When claiming objectivity, it’s always a good thing to clear potential biases up front, to let the reader know who they’re dealing with… That said, Garnett had a pretty good game last night, and Bryant had a pretty bad game… Garnett would have been even better without that cold streak–the only player who missed more shots was Kobe, who missed 17! Using the results of a huge, awesome linear regression the results of which have not yet been made public (although it’s very similar to the coefficients seen here), I derive the following from last nights box scores:

Player min pts MEV PVC PtC Credit
Kevin Garnett 40.65 24 22.33 0.250 25.94 0.279
Paul Pierce 31.07 22 18.49 0.207 21.48 0.231
Pau Gasol 41.47 15 19.39 0.246 20.52 0.221
Derek Fisher 40.82 15 18.98 0.241 20.09 0.216
Ray Allen 43.95 19 16.85 0.189 19.57 0.210
Rajon Rondo 35.03 15 14.92 0.167 17.34 0.186
Lamar Odom 39.02 14 12.90 0.163 13.65 0.147
Kobe Bryant 41.87 24 11.06 0.140 11.71 0.126
Vladimir Radmanovic 17.05 5 9.86 0.125 10.43 0.112
Leon Powe 9.32 4 6.85 0.077 7.96 0.086
Sam Cassell 12.97 8 5.40 0.061 6.28 0.067
P.J. Brown 21.20 2 5.08 0.057 5.90 0.063
Sasha Vujacic 26.52 8 4.17 0.053 4.41 0.047
Ronny Turiaf 12.38 5 1.74 0.022 1.84 0.020
Jordan Farmar 7.18 2 0.86 0.011 0.91 0.010
Kendrick Perkins 23.02 1 0.63 0.007 0.73 0.008
Luke Walton 13.70 0 -0.05 -0.001 -0.06 -0.001
James Posey 22.80 3 -1.39 -0.016 -1.61 -0.017
Totals 480 186 168.05 2.000 187.08 2.012

MEV is the term for model-estimated value or point difference created, using only the regression weights. PVC is percent of valuable contributions, which is each player’s part of total team MEV. PtC is points created, which scales MEV values according to actual team and opponent scoring, to roughly account for those factors unmeasured by the box score, and Credit is, essentially, the amount of a win each player should be credited for. MEV and PtC are intended to account for both offensive and defensive contributions, that is, the player’s contribution to his own team’s scoring, and his defense preventing his opponent’s scoring. Boston’s total team Credit was 1.114, and LA’s was 0.898, based on the number of points each scored. It appears as though Boston was able to do to Kobe what they did in the regular season. Note that Posey, despite a timely three, actually hurt his team some: his two turnovers and three personal fouls effectively cancelled out his two steals, while his two defensive rebounds and three points could not compensate sufficiently for four missed shots. However, this is only based on box scores… he may have had tremendous unmeasured defense which I cannot capture, since his plus/minus was +3. It’s interesting to compare my metrics with plus/minus figures: Kobe was -13 for the game…

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3 responses to “Credit where credit is due

  1. Pingback: Carrying the burden « The Arbitrarian

  2. I doubt majority of people or media will easily understand those sort of stats. PPG, MPG.. era has yet to come to an end.

    Credits to your effort! Thanks…

  3. Pingback: Who won the game for Boston? « The Arbitrarian

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