Here’s the game two estimate of who deserves credit for the win:
I’ve added a column since last time, G/B, which stands for “Good over Bad,” meaning I divide the linear-weighted sum of good things the player did over the linear-weighted sum of the bad things he did. It’s a playing-time-independent measure, and it highlights especially those players who were a “spark” off the bench, like Posey and Powe (who sounded on the radio like he had an incredible game), and Turiaf.
Two things to worry about if you’re a Boston fan and be happy about if you’re a Lakers fan: Kobe Bryant almost did enough to get the win for his team–he finally had a quarter and a half-ish in which he really took over and made his team compete. Kevin Garnett had a pretty poor game last night–missing as many shots (with a worse percentage) as did Kobe, and turning it over four times. He rebounded well, but the Celtics as a team out-rebounded the Lakers by only one. Put it this way for Garnett: Leon Powe, in just over a third of Garnett’s playing time, outplayed Garnett (in terms of Credit for the win) by half. We’ll see how things pan out in LA.
I also thought I’d also look into home-away free throw and personal foul disparities. Over the 1986-97 to 2007-08 period, in regular season games, home teams were called for an average of 22.17 personal fouls, compared to 23.04 on the visitors. Home teams shot 27.08 free throws to away teams’ 25.71. Difference of means tests for both of these were significant. Interestingly, free throw percentages are also significantly different: 0.752 for the home team, 0.750 away.