Who won the game for Boston?

Here’s the game two estimate of who deserves credit for the win:

tm Player MP PTS MEV PVC PtC Credit G/B
lal Kobe Bryant 40.47 30 27.63 0.292 29.00 0.276 2.48
bos Paul Pierce 41.47 28 25.75 0.223 24.77 0.236 2.63
lal Pau Gasol 40.42 17 23.55 0.249 24.71 0.235 4.81
bos Rajon Rondo 41.83 4 20.64 0.179 19.86 0.189 3.32
bos Leon Powe 14.65 21 18.33 0.159 17.63 0.168 5.36
lal Vladimir Radmanovic 30.50 13 14.27 0.151 14.98 0.143 2.55
bos Kevin Garnett 39.12 17 12.88 0.111 12.39 0.118 1.69
lal Derek Fisher 29.90 9 10.94 0.116 11.49 0.109 2.77
bos Ray Allen 40.75 17 11.55 0.100 11.11 0.106 2.25
bos James Posey 19.72 8 9.92 0.086 9.54 0.091 9.00
lal Lamar Odom 32.27 10 7.77 0.082 8.16 0.078 1.77
bos P.J. Brown 22.62 6 8.42 0.073 8.10 0.077 7.79
lal Jordan Farmar 18.10 9 7.72 0.082 8.10 0.077 3.36
bos Kendrick Perkins 13.68 7 7.41 0.064 7.13 0.068 2.97
lal Ronny Turiaf 8.70 4 3.56 0.038 3.73 0.036 9.05
lal Sasha Vujacic 19.53 8 2.52 0.027 2.64 0.025 1.38
bos Sam Cassell 6.17 0 0.68 0.006 0.65 0.006 1.33
lal Luke Walton 12.80 2 -1.60 -0.017 -1.68 -0.016 0.61
lal Trevor Ariza 7.32 0 -1.86 -0.020 -1.96 -0.019 0.36
Totals 480 210 210.06 2.000 210.34 2.003 2.58

I’ve added a column since last time, G/B, which stands for “Good over Bad,” meaning I divide the linear-weighted sum of good things the player did over the linear-weighted sum of the bad things he did. It’s a playing-time-independent measure, and it highlights especially those players who were a “spark” off the bench, like Posey and Powe (who sounded on the radio like he had an incredible game), and Turiaf.

Two things to worry about if you’re a Boston fan and be happy about if you’re a Lakers fan: Kobe Bryant almost did enough to get the win for his team–he finally had a quarter and a half-ish in which he really took over and made his team compete. Kevin Garnett had a pretty poor game last night–missing as many shots (with a worse percentage) as did Kobe, and turning it over four times. He rebounded well, but the Celtics as a team out-rebounded the Lakers by only one. Put it this way for Garnett: Leon Powe, in just over a third of Garnett’s playing time, outplayed Garnett (in terms of Credit for the win) by half. We’ll see how things pan out in LA.

I also thought I’d also look into home-away free throw and personal foul disparities. Over the 1986-97 to 2007-08 period, in regular season games, home teams were called for an average of 22.17 personal fouls, compared to 23.04 on the visitors. Home teams shot 27.08 free throws to away teams’ 25.71. Difference of means tests for both of these were significant. Interestingly, free throw percentages are also significantly different: 0.752 for the home team, 0.750 away.

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3 responses to “Who won the game for Boston?

  1. Interesting article.
    Is the free throw percentage difference of 0.002 really significant? Statistically significant?
    I wonder how many standard deviations away from the mean the difference between the home and away free throws attempted in game 2 was?

  2. rapidadverbssuck

    Mr. Muller: Thank you for your interest. When I use the word “significant,” I typically mean statistical significance, as I do here. Now, as to “practical significance”–I am not sure, but it indicates that shooting at home, rather than on the road would lead to an additional point scored for every 500 free throws shot. As to your second question, I’ll see if I can figure it out, so stop by the morning after game three…

  3. Pingback: Just how bad was the free throw discrepancy in Game 2? « The Arbitrarian

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