Ray Allen, finals MVP?

He certainly seems to have found his stroke in this series, and has been arguably the most consistent of the Big Six… here are the individual contributions to last night’s game:

tm Player MP PTS MEV PVC PtC Credit G/B
bos Ray Allen 48.00 19 25.69 0.293 29.34 0.312 4.69
lal Lamar Odom 39.00 19 24.86 0.301 26.57 0.283 4.70
bos Paul Pierce 42.17 20 18.07 0.206 20.64 0.220 2.26
lal Kobe Bryant 43.35 17 19.01 0.230 20.31 0.216 2.08
bos Kevin Garnett 37.15 16 16.66 0.190 19.03 0.202 2.23
bos James Posey 25.47 18 12.84 0.146 14.66 0.156 3.07
lal Trevor Ariza 8.72 6 11.65 0.141 12.45 0.132 12.44
lal Pau Gasol 37.98 17 11.20 0.136 11.96 0.127 1.82
lal Derek Fisher 25.33 13 9.98 0.121 10.67 0.113 2.57
lal Vladimir Radmanovic 26.58 10 9.55 0.116 10.21 0.109 2.66
bos Eddie House 24.57 11 8.51 0.097 9.72 0.103 2.50
bos Rajon Rondo 17.02 5 4.90 0.056 5.60 0.060 2.73
bos P.J. Brown 14.53 3 2.07 0.024 2.36 0.025 1.51
bos Leon Powe 9.05 3 0.80 0.009 0.91 0.010 1.15
bos Kendrick Perkins 13.25 2 0.57 0.006 0.65 0.007 1.19
lal Jordan Farmar 21.42 3 0.57 0.007 0.61 0.006 1.11
bos Tony Allen 2.23 0 0.52 0.006 0.59 0.006 #DIV/0!
lal Luke Walton 3.78 3 -0.70 -0.008 -0.74 -0.008 0.81
lal Ronny Turiaf 10.02 0 -1.12 -0.014 -1.20 -0.013 0.57
lal Sasha Vujacic 23.82 3 -2.48 -0.030 -2.65 -0.028 0.76
bos Sam Cassell 6.57 0 -2.90 -0.033 -3.31 -0.035 0.00
Totals 480 188 170.25 2.000 188.38 2.004 2.24

What a game it was! I admit to assuming a Laker win and tuning out. I never expected such a comeback! Allen, Pierce and Garnett all showed up last night, and Bryant missed his usual umteen shots. Posey and Ariza both had pretty big games, but Vujacic fell off the map.

For games like these, I like putting together a graph of team points over time, which is something you can find elsewhere, but I add some useful information to mine, and calculate what I call “approximate domination,” (although I could probably come up with a better name). Essentially, you take the area under the winning team’s curve below, and subtract the area under the losing team’s curve. This is the average lead, compounded by second, over the course of the game. To me, it represents the extent of the closeness of a game better than final score.

As is hopefully evident, the Lakers dominated this game, but the Celtics drastically increased their slope right after LA took their biggest lead. The black trendline is Laker’s scoring, and green is Celtics. The sparklines at bottom represent individual scores, height-scaled in accordance with how many points were made–ftm, f2m, or f3m. Dotted lines indicate points at which the teams were tied, and solid vertical lines indicate the largest deficit and lead for the winning team. As you can see, despite winning by six, the Celtics trailed by an average of eleven points for the duration of the game. I think this is somewhat informative, although, unfortunately, somewhat time-consuming to calculate… what do you think?

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2 responses to “Ray Allen, finals MVP?

  1. hi, stumbled over this article and i think your graph is a nice idea. but to depict the (changing) momentum (you speak of “dominance”), how about charting the “derivative” throughout the game, i.e. the relative changes in scoring. I would find that even more informative than absolute numbers. best, lazy8

  2. Pingback: Paul Pierce: An MVP performance in a losing effort « The Arbitrarian

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