Anything’s possible.

Huge game. I’d like to point out, that despite seemingly everyone picking the Lakers to win this series, I had the Celtics winning the championship (not that this was a particularly bold pick):

At the end of the series, this is how each player’s cumulative perfomance looks:

Player PTS MEV PVC PtC Credit GoB
Ray Allen 122 116.58 0.194 125.90 1.313 3.00
Kobe Bryant 154 109.97 0.195 122.87 1.291 1.90
Kevin Garnett 109 111.13 0.185 119.34 1.206 2.22
Paul Pierce 131 108.78 0.181 119.60 1.184 2.17
Pau Gasol 88 95.94 0.170 105.69 1.069 2.61
Lamar Odom 81 80.58 0.143 90.23 0.912 2.27
Rajon Rondo 56 77.40 0.129 79.18 0.788 2.39
Derek Fisher 65 60.57 0.108 67.49 0.690 2.33
James Posey 52 57.54 0.096 60.86 0.621 3.30
Jordan Farmar 42 37.59 0.067 43.97 0.453 2.47
Vladimir Radmanovic 44 41.23 0.073 44.66 0.449 2.14
Sasha Vujacic 50 29.68 0.053 36.41 0.399 1.75
Leon Powe 37 31.97 0.053 31.97 0.306 2.74
Kendrick Perkins 20 24.68 0.041 26.69 0.299 2.20
Eddie House 32 27.21 0.045 29.00 0.295 2.20
P.J. Brown 24 26.02 0.043 26.34 0.250 2.16
Trevor Ariza 13 14.86 0.026 16.69 0.185 2.86
Luke Walton 15 10.49 0.019 14.48 0.137 1.55
Sam Cassell 19 10.35 0.017 12.57 0.130 1.54
Ronny Turiaf 11 4.85 0.009 5.75 0.054 1.44
sum 1165 1077.41 1.846 1179.68 12.030 2.26

So, I have Ray Allen as MVP. I’m willing to concede that due to the lack of defensive box score statistics, I may underestimate defensive contributions to some extent, and as such, Pierce’s relative lockdown on Bryant in several games might push him to the top, at least statistically. Subjectively, though, I like Pierce as MVP anyway. It’s also worth mentioning that Kobe Bryant, for the series, scored 154 points and missed 78 field goals. This means he scored 27.3% of his team’s points, and missed 31.2% of his team’s misses. Bryant is a very good, sometimes dominant player, but he takes an aweful lot of shots, and missed shots hurt your team.

I have to say, though, I am impressed with the degree to which the Celtics dominated the Lakers throughout the series, and especially in the clinching game. Everyone stepped up–according to MEV (model-estimated value) Garnett had the best individual game of the series, with 35. Here is a spreadsheet listing each individual game performance, sorted by Credit–that is, players’ contributions to their teams’ relative success:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pjtolzxemBV74inofaEcgQQ&hl=en

I hope you’ve found the Arbitrarian’s Finals coverage interesting and valid… can’t wait ’til next season.

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4 responses to “Anything’s possible.

  1. Much thanks for the coverage of the finals, I’ve enjoyed it plenty. I’ts more than once I’ve referred to your statistics during the playoffs on my blog.

  2. Pingback: Assigning credit to Team USA « The Arbitrarian

  3. David,

    Just in case you didn’t know … like you, I, too, had the Celtics to win the 2007-2008 NBA championship.

    http://khandorssportsblog.wordpress.com/2008/06/03/nba-playoffs-finals-preview/

    Looking forward to hearing back from you shortly, re: regression analysis, rebouns & winning NBA games. ๐Ÿ™‚

  4. PS. Hopefully, in due time, I will be able to send you an image/photo of me that you can upload to that beautiful chart you have at the top of this page, appropriately titled, “Expert Picks.”

    Interesting that Tim Legler, you and me were the only ones to pick the Celtics. ๐Ÿ™‚

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